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Should you carry an umbrella on a cloudy day? Can you wait till the chance of rain is either 100% or 0% to decide? Day-to-day choices—and the big choices, too—rest on imperfect knowledge. How much certainty we demand depends on what’s knowable and how much it matters.
Long ago, I was married to a soldier in the Army Security Agency. Though I wasn’t privy to his top-secret training, I suspect that’s where he learned labels for different degrees of certainty or validity. A-val meant certain, B-val probable, C-val perhaps fifty-fifty, D-val possible. These terms entered my vocabulary for historical research and everyday life. The standard of evidence in criminal prosecutions is A-val, beyond a reasonable doubt. In civil suits it’s B-val, preponderance of the evidence. Lack of certainty isn’t cause for paralysis or cynicism. Often the best we can do is estimate likelihood, compare the risks of getting it wrong in one direction versus the other, and move forward.
4 Comments
Dennis Doren
12/9/2019 09:15:19 am
I agree with your description of certainties, especially when including the co-factor of degree of importance. I believe there is much more to this story. What we believe is the "truth" seems often determined by things totally aside from its probability. How many of us believe in what others call superstitions [good luck charms, jinxing someone simply by talking about something (knock on wood)]? Do those come with "certainty levels", or are they things some people accept because it is presumed too costly not to accept them? What about the facets of our religious faith, something highly correlated with what our parents ensured we learned? Maybe the biggest factor of all is what our loved ones and friends believe. Do we really do an assessment of the degree to which we believe something (coupled with their perceived importance), or do we simply accept "relationship-based" information as long as it does not conflict with other previously held beliefs about what is true? That, to me, is the third facet in determining "our truth". Besides a degree of certainty, and the degree of importance, we also have a strong tendency to accept what people among our committed relations tell us. The fact a friend or loved one tells us something likely adds to its degree of importance, as this helps us all feel connected. 12/9/2019 10:27:37 am
Dennis, this is thought-provoking and persuasive. What the people around us believe can affects our beliefs enormously - not just because of the information or pseudo-information they give us, but because we want and need their acceptance. The risk of asserting X when our friends assert Y is not just that X might be wrong, but - even more - that we'll be excommunicated from our circle. On issues where I don't agree with the accepted wisdom of the people I hang out with, even if I say nothing, I can start to feel I don't belong. 12/16/2019 01:24:05 pm
I'm glad someone feels that an event, a visit, a promotion might be A-val - I plan as if something will happen while knowing things can change at the last minute. I guess I like the Spanish subjunctive subjective point of view that expresses that while I want to get groceries today, life might have other plans for me. ; ) 12/16/2019 08:53:45 pm
I love the idea of having a form of the verb that acknowledges everything is provisional! Perhaps nothing in the future is A-val. As a historian, I tend to hold that highest ranking for something in the past that I'm pretty sure is real - like George Washington being the first U.S. president - or perhaps in the present, like that right now I live in this house. As for next year or next week, I go ahead and act on my best understanding, but nothing is certain. Leave a Reply. |
AuthorI'm a historian who writes novels and literary nonfiction. My home base is Madison, Wisconsin.
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